Truck carriers are handling 12–14% less capacity than current demand requires, even as shipment volumes remain essentially flat year-over-year. That's according to a FreightWaves analysis published Saturday by market analyst Zach Strickland, who warns that the current tight freight cycle shows few signs of easing through the rest of 2026 and into early 2027. The report describes this tightening as primarily supply-driven, meaning carriers have reduced capacity faster than demand has fallen, creating a mismatch that's pushing up rejection rates and straining shipper relationships.

The SONAR Accepted Truckload Volume Index sat at around 10,450 in recent weekly readings, compared to 10,600 in June 2023. But the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index has spiked to above 16%, up from just over 4% three years ago and more than 11 percentage points higher than 2024 levels. The report notes that accepted tender volumes — requests carriers formally agree to cover under pre-existing rates — are down 5% from 2024, while total tender volumes are up around 9%. In a normal, well-supplied market, rejection rates hover between 2–4%. When you subtract that baseline from the current 16.5% rate, it suggests the market is roughly 12–14% underserved relative to demand. Demand has seen a "decent uptick" over the past year, driven partly by hyperscaling AI data centers, defense spending, and reduced inventories that prompted shippers to shorten order lead times. But total tender volumes are up only 9% — modest compared to the 36% surge in the back half of 2020 or the 19% jump in accepted volumes during that period.

The report emphasizes that rejection rates are a cleaner signal of capacity imbalance than freight rates alone, because carriers have no incentive to damage customer relationships by turning down loads. "Carriers have no incentive to increase rejection rates or reduce compliance," Strickland writes. "Unlike rate increases, they know rejections are purely damaging to customer relationships." The analysis concludes that in an elevated rejection environment like the current one — where the index exceeds roughly 10% — "we can safely conclude that carriers lack sufficient capacity to meet existing customer demand." Large trucking fleets have been reducing capacity through the first quarter of this year, and net changes in operating authorities tracked by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration remained "deeply negative through April."

In past cycles, rejection rates fell just over 1% per month as carriers rapidly added trucks and drivers. At that pace, the market would return to balance in about a year — but there's little sign capacity is growing now. Most large carriers continue shrinking their fleets, and recent regulatory changes like the Montgomery-Caribe ruling have made it harder for freight brokers to vet and activate new operators, reducing their options beyond simply finding carriers with active licenses. Demand shocks drove the last two major freight tightening cycles in 2017 and 2020, both fueled by strong government stimulus and preceded by freight recessions that forced carriers into defensive pricing. This time is different. The report's base case assumes demand stays "relatively stable to slightly higher" if inflation pressures ease, meaning the tightening is more subtle — and possibly more sustainable. Strickland warns that "anyone expecting a sharp easing or a short-lived tight cycle — based on current data — may be setting themselves up for a difficult second half of the year and start to 2027." The takeaway: this isn't a demand boom that'll collapse quickly. It's a slow-burn capacity crunch with no fast exit in sight.