Crude oil prices climbed to $109 per barrel by mid-September as escalating military conflict in the Middle East disrupted global petroleum markets, according to an October 5 analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The third quarter of 2026 saw Brent crude futures start at $72 per barrel on July 1—the lowest level since late February—before surging past $100 in late July and peaking at $109 on September 15, while spot prices reached as high as $132 around the same time.
The price climb reflected several compounding factors throughout the quarter. Brent crude futures initially traded between $79 and $98 per barrel from late July through early September, with daily volatility driven by public statements from U.S., Iranian, and regional leaders about military plans and peace negotiations, plus fluctuations in flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices broke through $100 again on September 9 after a wave of attacks targeted energy infrastructure across multiple regions: U.S. and Iranian forces struck crude oil tankers, the U.S. imposed a blockade on Iranian oil exports, attacks hit pumping stations on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Saudi tankers near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Ukrainian drones targeted Novorossiysk, a major Russian oil terminal on the Black Sea. Two additional market shifts added pressure: China's crude imports, which had dropped sharply since April and absorbed some supply shock, began rising again in the third quarter compared to May and June levels, while releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve slowed significantly in September.
The report notes that refinery margins for transportation fuels remained elevated as U.S. refineries operated at unseasonably high capacity—averaging 95% utilization and processing more crude oil for a third quarter than any year since 2019, when refining capacity stood 4% higher. Crack spreads for motor gasoline more than doubled year-ago levels despite falling in the second half of the quarter, while distillate and jet fuel crack spreads nearly tripled their year-ago figures due to tight global supply. The analysis found that distillate fuel oil and jet fuel saw the highest crack spreads because disrupted refining in Russia, China, and the Middle East had supplied large portions of these fuels to world markets.
The disruptions created uneven inventory pressure across fuel types, the report explains, with U.S. distillate supplies becoming particularly strained from high exports to markets facing shortages and elevated costs in importing regions like the East Coast. As of the week ending September 25, U.S. distillate fuel inventories sat 13% below the five-year average from 2021 to 2025, while gasoline inventories were 7% below and jet fuel inventories stood 3% above their respective five-year averages. Crude oil prices averaged around $104 per barrel in the final two weeks of the quarter as markets weighed ongoing peace discussions against the threat of wider-scale war, leaving petroleum markets balanced between hope for resolution and the risk of further escalation.