The Conservative Party won its first Scottish by-election since 1967, capturing Aberdeen South with nearly half the vote (49.5 percent) on June 18, according to a new analysis published by the Hoover Institution. The report, written as a follow-up to earlier analysis of the three UK parliamentary by-elections, concludes that the supposedly unstoppable Reform Party is "in fact, stoppable" and that the beleaguered Conservative Party is showing signs of life heading into 2029.
The three by-elections produced dramatically different results across England and Scotland. In Makerfield near Manchester, Labour won decisively in what the report describes as a two-horse race with Reform, while the Conservative, Green, and Liberal Democratic parties all lost their deposits—falling below the 5 percent threshold that costs them their ballot access fee. The Conservatives had won just 10.9 percent there in 2024, the Liberal Democrats 6.8 percent, and the Greens 4.4 percent, and all three saw their vote totals decline further. In Aberdeen South, Conservative candidate Douglas Lumsden took 49.5 percent against the Scottish National Party's 28.6 percent, with Reform a distant third at 8.6 percent and Labour fourth with just 5.4 percent—a collapse of 19.4 percentage points from the previous election. In Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, the SNP held on with 44.1 percent (gaining 5.8 percentage points from 2024), but the Conservatives still managed second place over Reform, despite Reform gaining 9.6 percentage points.
The report notes that the Makerfield contest was "a crucial move in the political chess match that led to the ouster of Prime Minister Keir Starmer," who has since been replaced by Andy Burnham. After the Aberdeen South victory, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said, "Aberdeen has sent a message to the Labour government and the SNP that we will not be ignored." The report observes that Badenoch made three constituency visits during the campaign and that her approval ratings have been steadily improving. The BBC described the win as allowing the Tories to "pick themselves up off the floor with unexpected Scottish by-election win," while some observers attempted to dismiss the result by noting Aberdeen's ties to the North Sea oil and gas industry—though the report points out that Conservatives, Reform, and the SNP were all competing on support for that sector.
The report argues that Labour has made a critical error by imitating "one of the least attractive features of the Tories: regicide," blaming its leader rather than confronting internal divisions over economic and security issues. It expresses concern that new Prime Minister Burnham "is perceived to be to the political left of Starmer" and has criticized Britain for being "in hock to the bond markets," warning this approach prioritizes welfare over defense and economic growth. The report also criticizes the media for developing "a thirst for intrigue and coups" and for "cheering on, for clicks and views, those who fiddle while Rome burns." Looking ahead, the report recommends that rather than chase the populist right, the Conservatives should let Reform and Restore "fight each other for this vote and push each other to the most extreme positions." By reclaiming what it calls "the responsible center-right ground of economic freedom, individual liberty, national security, and common-sense social policies"—and with a leader growing more popular each month—the report concludes the next elected government in 2029 could well be Conservative.