Ukrainian drones struck Russia's largest oil refinery on July 6 in what Kyiv described as one of the farthest-reaching attacks of the war, according to a military situation report published by the Hudson Institute on July 8. The attack on the Omsk refinery, located roughly 1,700 miles from Ukrainian-held territory near Russia's border with Kazakhstan, triggered a fire at the facility. The report finds that Ukraine's deep-strike campaign is progressing while Russia maintains an offensive footing on land, exploiting critical gaps in Ukraine's ballistic-missile defenses.
The report details that Russia launched 419 aerial weapons against Ukraine during the night of July 5–6, including 68 missiles and 351 drones. The strike package included 23 Iskander ballistic missiles, six Zircon/Onyx anti-ship missiles, 33 Kh-101 cruise missiles, and six Kalibr cruise missiles, alongside Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas, and decoy drones. Ukraine did not stop or intercept any ballistic missiles or anti-ship missiles launched in the attack, though its air defenses performed effectively against cruise missiles and drones. The Ukrainian General Staff reported fighting as many as 300 tactical engagements in a single day for the first time in months, with Sloviansk, Pokrovsk, Huliaipole, and Kostiantynivka remaining the most prominent flashpoints. Available data indicates that in 2024 Russia produced between 720 to 840 Iskander ballistic missiles and between 120 and 180 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles.
According to the report, Ukrainian defense technology company Fire Point stated that its upgraded FP-1 drones carried out the Omsk raid and described the attack as a record-setting strike for unmanned systems. The Hudson Institute report notes that imagery released by the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence shows Russia has fitted the improved Kilo-class submarines of its Black Sea Fleet with anti-drone cages, reflecting mounting pressure from Ukrainian naval drones. A Ukrainian Air Force spokesman stated after the July 5–6 attack that Ukraine lacked sufficient Patriot launchers and a steady supply of interceptors. At a press conference before NATO's summit in Ankara, Turkey, Secretary General Mark Rutte urged allies to sustain and expand their air-defense assistance to Ukraine, warning that Russia's continuing missile and drone campaigns have made interceptor supply a central test of allied resolve.
The report explains that Russia is increasingly shaping its deep-strike campaign around the segment of Ukraine's air-defense architecture with the thinnest margin for error: Patriot-class ballistic-missile interception. Without sustained Patriot interceptor deliveries, Kyiv remains vulnerable to Russia's fastest and most destructive munitions. The report highlights a growing asymmetry between Ukraine's ability to defeat drones and cruise missiles and its ability to defeat ballistic and high-speed strike systems. Moscow has also converted increasing quantities of air-defense missiles for ground-attack use, which Ukrainian reporting identifies as RM-48U variants. Even relatively inaccurate converted missiles can threaten cities and infrastructure, but defeating these projectiles requires the same high-end interceptors Ukraine has used against Russia's most dangerous ballistic missiles. This creates what the report calls a serious missile-defense dilemma for Kyiv, as low-cost modified ballistic missiles can saturate opposing defenses while draining Ukraine's limited stockpile of advanced interceptors.
The report concludes that NATO's 2026 summit, convening this week, is expected to focus on defense-industrial issues, with the alliance likely to announce new initiatives to sustain and expand military support for Ukraine. It recommends monitoring whether these announcements translate into concrete capability packages, particularly in areas where Kyiv has faced persistent shortfalls. Potential developments could include new arrangements related to Patriot interceptor transfers as well as movement on other high-end systems that Ukraine has long sought but not yet received. The bottom line: Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Russia is expanding even as its defenses against Russian ballistic missiles face an increasingly urgent shortfall that NATO allies must address with both additional systems and a steady supply of interceptors.