Minnesota's state government has stopped releasing data on its Paid Family and Medical Leave program nearly two months after approvals were running 30% above the forecasts used to design the system, according to a June 22, 2026 analysis by John Phelan, an economist at the Center of the American Experiment. The last official update came from Governor Walz himself in his April 28 State of the State speech, breaking a pattern of regular monthly updates that had continued since the program launched in January. The silence raises questions about whether the program's funding model can survive approval rates that far exceed what actuaries predicted.
The scheme was designed around a forecast of 352 daily approvals, based on an annual estimate of 128,338 approvals for 2023. By April 28, Governor Walz revealed that the state had "approved more than 54,000 applications" since the January 1 launch—a daily approval rate of 458, or 30% above forecast. Prior to the governor's speech, the state had issued regular updates: twice in March, once in February, and twice in January. But in the 55 days between April 28 and June 22, no new data has been released. If approvals continued at the same daily rate of 458, Phelan calculates the total would have reached 79,190 approvals by June 22, pushing the daily rate to 463—32% above the original forecast.
According to Phelan, the program is currently funded by a 0.88% payroll tax split between employers and employees, a rate that has already been hiked by 25% since the law was enacted. The report notes that as the Pioneer Press reported in February, state officials said the tax rate's future "would depend on an actuarial analysis expected in the coming months." The state is required to send employers updated premium rates by July 31, meaning an official estimate must come before that deadline.
The report explains that approval rates running consistently above forecast threaten the program's financial sustainability because the payroll tax was calibrated to cover the predicted volume of claims. When actual approvals run 30% to 32% higher than expected, the gap between incoming revenue and outgoing benefits widens, potentially forcing the state to either raise the payroll tax again or tap other funding sources. Phelan wrote in March that an actuarial analysis would determine how long the current 0.88% rate could stand, and with the July 31 deadline approaching, the absence of updates suggests officials may be grappling with difficult funding decisions. The report questions whether the money is running out alongside the time to decide on new rates.
Phelan concludes by suggesting that "local newshounds might find this a question worth asking," framing the data gap as a transparency issue that journalists should investigate. With the July 31 deadline looming and no updates since late April, the report implies that Minnesota's paid leave program may be heading toward another payroll tax increase—and that the silence from state government could be a sign officials are bracing for bad news.