Data centers powering artificial intelligence could consume roughly 11.8 percent of America's electricity by 2030, according to a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory assessment cited in a new Nonprofit Quarterly report published in 2026. The analysis warns that the infrastructure needed to support AI's expansion raises urgent questions about who shoulders the environmental burden and who gets a voice in decisions affecting local electricity, water, and land resources.
The International Energy Agency projects electricity use from data centers worldwide will more than double to approximately 945 terawatt-hours by 2030, with AI expected to drive much of that surge. In the United States, data centers could account for close to half of all electricity-demand growth through 2030, according to the IEA estimates cited in the report. The Berkeley Lab assessment puts the 2030 figure at a range of 9.5 to 15.3 percent of national electricity consumption depending on how quickly the industry grows. A 2025 study in Nature Sustainability estimated that AI servers deployed in the US between 2024 and 2030 could carry an annual water footprint of roughly 731 million to 1.125 billion cubic meters, though the researchers stressed substantial uncertainty based on server locations, electricity sources, and efficiency gains. Virginia's data center industry contributes about 74,000 jobs, $5.5 billion in labor income, and $9.1 billion in annual GDP to the state, according to the state's Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission.
The report identifies residential proximity and water allocation as areas where state-level sustainability can mask local strain. JLARC found that roughly one-third of Virginia's data centers sit near residential areas and cautioned that weak local planning can harm residents, while water use remains sustainable statewide even as availability varies locally with less oversight over competing uses. In Memphis and Southaven, Mississippi, Elon Musk's xAI built the Colossus data center and used natural-gas turbines to power its expansion, prompting an April 2026 lawsuit by the NAACP alleging the company operates 27 turbines without required air permits. The NAACP argues the turbines function as a power plant near homes, schools, and churches, and could emit more than 1,700 tons of nitrogen oxides annually along with particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and formaldehyde. On June 18, 2026, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ordered all six regional grid operators under its jurisdiction to justify or reform their tariffs for data centers and other very large electricity users, citing concerns that infrastructure costs built primarily for exceptionally large customers could be recovered too broadly and passed onto ordinary ratepayers.
The report emphasizes that the physical footprint of AI extends well beyond server buildings to encompass power plants, fuel infrastructure, transmission lines, and cooling systems that alter the environmental profile of entire regions. The authors argue that electricity costs hit low-income families hardest because a modest rate increase may be manageable for high-income households but crushing for families already facing energy poverty. Water-intensive cooling can strain municipal systems, rivers, and groundwater, while electricity generation itself carries a water footprint that compounds the impact. New transmission and distribution lines create collision and electrocution risks for birds, with one widely cited US study estimating power lines kill between 12 million and 64 million birds annually. Large industrial developments can convert or fragment land, and new roads, substations, and transmission corridors can divide habitats and disrupt wildlife movement patterns, though the report notes that better siting, water recycling, cleaner electricity, and stronger environmental review can reduce many of these risks.
The report recommends that residents should see projected electricity and water demand, planned generation sources, expected infrastructure costs, tax incentives, permanent employment projections, noise assessments, and environmental studies before major data center approvals. Community benefit agreements could give residents a way to negotiate legally binding commitments on infrastructure, water systems, grid resilience, environmental monitoring, and workforce development. Philanthropy can help grassroots groups hire energy economists, utility attorneys, and technical consultants to intervene at state public utility commissions and review the fairness of large-load cost allocation. The AI economy may be global, but its environmental costs are local—and the report argues that before asking how efficiently AI can operate, two more fundamental questions demand answers: efficient for whom, and sustainable for whom?