Clean energy developers are now creating federal tax credits faster than corporations can buy them, shifting market power to buyers and forcing sellers to compete more aggressively for deals, according to Renewable Credit Management's third quarter 2026 market report. The imbalance marks a reversal from the buyer-constrained conditions of 2023-24, with the market now flooded by credits from residential solar financing platforms, advanced manufacturing projects, and ethanol producers. About one in four Fortune 1000 companies now participate as buyers, with financial services firms representing 45% of market volume and energy and utility companies accounting for 34%.
Production tax credits from solar and wind projects are selling for 92 to 94.5 cents per dollar of credit, holding up better than their investment-based counterparts because buyers find them easier to evaluate and less risky. Investment tax credits for solar, battery storage, and biogas—calculated as a share of eligible project expenses—are fetching 90 to 93 cents per dollar, while technology-neutral ITCs face steeper price pressure amid uncertainty over new federal regulations, currently selling for 88 to 91 cents per dollar. At the low end of the market, clean fuel credits are clearing at 87 to 92 cents per dollar. Residential solar alone was projected to generate roughly $6 billion in investment tax credits in 2025, while Sunnova, a residential solar finance company formerly listed on the New York Stock Exchange, reported $207.4 million in ITC sales in 2023 and approximately $645.5 million in 2024.
The report finds that residential clean energy financing platforms are increasingly selling credits to raise working capital, adding to supply pressures as ethanol becomes the largest expected source of transferable clean fuel credits. Buyers have grown more selective about projects and transactions that carry additional compliance risk, and they're now seeking protection against having to repay the value of a tax credit if the IRS later determines it doesn't qualify. Timothy Doran, a director at RCM, said developers are increasingly being asked to secure bank-backed indemnities rather than rely solely on commercial insurance, while some buyers are delaying transactions until they have greater clarity about whether credits from projects with potential foreign entity of concern, or FEOC, issues will qualify. "ITC sellers are very anxiously awaiting regulations and additional guidance so that their credits can be insured, and the buyers can feel more comfortable purchasing," Doran said.
The growing supply is driven partly by a "limited pool of buying capacity," which reflects changes to bonus depreciation and Section 174 expensing under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, weighing on market conditions, according to the report. The influx from advanced manufacturing projects and ethanol producers is putting particular pressure on prices at the lower end of the market, where buyers have more options and can afford to wait for better terms. Pricing pressure is likely to persist for ITCs subject to FEOC requirements even after additional guidance is issued, the report notes. RCM expects the market to remain relatively stable through the end of 2026, with stronger demand for lower-risk credits helping support prices even as overall supply stays elevated. The firm said growing corporate participation signals a maturing market, even as the current supply-demand imbalance gives buyers more room to negotiate.