Europe's power grid will surpass 80% zero-carbon generation by 2030, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie released September 29, 2026. The Europe Power Markets Strategic Planning Outlook 2026 covers 35 national markets through 2060 and reveals a paradox: while the continent will achieve its headline climate milestone, it'll fall short of its flagship renewables target by the same date. Total power demand is projected to expand 66% by 2050, driven by a wave of electrification that doesn't arrive evenly across sectors or timelines.

Power consumption across the 35 markets climbs from 4,103 TWh in 2030 to 6,152 TWh by 2050, an 11% jump above 2025 levels in the near term. Data centres drive early growth, while falling electricity prices from the 2030s onward shift the economics of electrification and trigger a new expansion wave. Electric vehicle consumption alone grows 15-fold, from 39 TWh in 2025 to 577 TWh by 2050. On-grid hydrogen scales from nearly zero to 417 TWh over the same stretch. Heat pump demand expands more than fivefold by 2060, though high upfront costs and unfavourable electricity-to-gas price ratios mean most markets fall short of national targets. Northern Europe records the strongest absolute demand growth at 81% by 2050, while Southern Europe trails at 52%. Overall demand sits around 2% lower than Wood Mackenzie's previous forecast as heat and hydrogen electrification lag expectations.

On the supply side, solar PV capacity nearly doubles to 637 GWac by 2030, adding around 61 GW annually, while onshore wind adds 17 GW per year to reach 346 GW. Offshore wind grows to 73 GW by 2030 before accelerating to 148 GW by 2035, though supply chain pressures and investor uncertainty have delayed its trajectory. Renewables reach 65% of supply across the 35 markets by 2030 and 83% by 2050. But on an EU27 basis, the 2030 share stands at 63.7%, below both the Fit-for-55 target of 65% and the REPowerEU goal of 69%. Battery storage more than triples from 47 GW to 163 GW by 2030, with Germany, the UK, Italy, and Poland accounting for over half that growth. Natural gas generation averages 6% higher between 2026 and 2040 than the prior forecast, a structural shift caused by offshore wind downgrades that created a supply gap. Gas capacity rises 5% to 273 GW by 2030, even as fleet utilisation falls from 27% to 22%.

The report finds that gas is retained for flexibility rather than volume, with capacity mechanisms and flexibility revenues at the centre of the investment case. Coal generation halves from 457 TWh in 2025 to 237 TWh by 2030, and the EU27 fleet exits the mix by 2050. Nuclear is gaining ground in parallel through life extensions, new-build programmes, and policy reversals in Switzerland and Serbia. Mohammed Alraood, Research Analyst Europe Power at Wood Mackenzie, said: "Gas remains in the mix, not for volume but for the moments renewables cannot deliver." The report explains that rising emissions costs will force structural decisions that markets are only beginning to price in, and that load growth from the second half of the 2030s will provide day-ahead price support, offering relief to renewable asset owners navigating low capture pricing as solar expands. Curtailment risks will rise where grid infrastructure lags capacity additions.

Whether the transition delivers on its projected timeline will depend on the pace of grid investment and interconnector expansion, the report notes. Wood Mackenzie expects the region's commitment to the energy transition to be sustained, though investment opportunities in new supply won't be uniform across markets. Developers and investors will need a clear understanding of which markets combine policy certainty, grid capacity, and genuine load growth to make projects financeable. Gas volumes converge with the previous outlook by the mid-2040s, then fall sharply: power supply from gas declines 45% by 2060 as decarbonised alternatives become commercially viable.