More than $121 billion in renewable energy investment is now at risk as heightened federal oversight exposes 92 GW of wind, solar, and storage projects to increased permitting scrutiny, according to a new analysis from Wood Mackenzie. The report, titled "Federal friction: permitting risk across the US utility-scale renewables pipeline," reveals that permitting changes and federal funding withdrawals have already directly contributed to 7 GW of project cancellations or inactivity in 2025. The analysis warns that an additional 12 GW on federal lands and 80 GW on private lands could face similar delays or cancellations.
The data breakdown shows solar has the largest absolute exposure, with 30% of its pipeline at risk of additional review, while wind faces the highest proportional impact at 62% of its pipeline affected, excluding the ongoing FAA halt. Energy storage is also significantly hit, with more than one-quarter of planned capacity facing heightened permitting scrutiny. Following implementation of Department of Interior permitting rules issued on July 15, 2025, 32% of the early-stage project pipeline is now subject to additional federal review. Projects scheduled for 2029 account for the largest volume of capacity at risk on federal lands, potentially jeopardizing their tax credit eligibility.
Geographic exposure is concentrated in specific states, with Texas facing the highest risk, followed by California and Arizona, where federal oversight may delay projects beyond their planned commercial operation dates. For private land projects, wetlands account for the majority of exposure, with risk concentrated in Oregon, Alabama, Maine, Minnesota, and Montana. Wind projects face additional constraints from airspace permitting requirements. The DOI memorandum introduced a multi-step approval process that extends permitting timelines and increases scrutiny for any project involving a federal agency.
"Permitting risk varies by technology, though permitting for wetland areas remain the primary constraint across solar, wind and energy storage," said Kaitlin Fung, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. The report notes that while dozens of gigawatts of early-stage capacity have been cancelled or stalled since 2025, not all cancellations stem from permitting challenges—some also result from supply chain constraints and tighter financing conditions. According to Gaby Ackermann Logan, Research Associate at Wood Mackenzie, "For storage in particular, where development is often tied to solar, permitting uncertainty has a compounding effect."
The analysis explains that the centralized federal review process has created bottlenecks across nearly all wind and solar projects, fundamentally changing how developers navigate approvals. Wetland permitting emerges as the primary friction point because federal agencies must review any project that affects jurisdictional waters or wetlands, even on private land. This requirement pulls thousands of gigawatts into federal oversight that previously faced only state and local review. The report emphasizes that without more coordinated and predictable processes, delays and uncertainty will continue to weigh on development timelines and investment decisions, directly impacting project bankability.
Two policy developments offer potential relief from the current permitting gridlock. In April 2026, a federal court issued a preliminary injunction blocking agency actions that imposed new restrictions on wind and solar projects, finding them likely unlawful under the Administrative Procedure Act. While the injunction doesn't resolve broader permitting bottlenecks, it limits further disruption. Separately, the Simplifying Permitting and Ending Endless Delays (SPEED) Act, approved by the House in December 2025 and awaiting Senate and Executive approval, proposes to narrow environmental review scope, reduce agency duplication, and introduce stricter timelines for permitting decisions.
The report concludes that permitting remains one of the most critical barriers to advancing new projects, and developers who can anticipate where the friction points are will be better positioned to protect their timelines and maintain project bankability. If enacted, the SPEED Act could meaningfully reduce permitting timelines for infrastructure projects, including renewable energy development. With the policy landscape shifting quickly, the ability to navigate federal oversight may determine which projects move forward and which join the growing list of cancelled or stalled capacity.