The United States has agreed to pay Iran $300 billion in reparations, lift all sanctions, and withdraw forces from the region while receiving only a 60-day pledge of commercial traffic and an unverified nuclear promise in return, according to a scathing report published June 18, 2026, by Kori Schake at the American Enterprise Institute. The analysis concludes that the war, which evidently ended after three months of stalemate, represents "an American defeat of historic proportions" in which the U.S. is "paying them to return to the pre-war status quo."
The agreement's terms are heavily weighted against American interests, the report details. The U.S. has committed to end blockades, withdraw forces "from the proximity of the Islamic Republic," pay $300 billion to Iran while offering nothing to countries Iran attacked, unfreeze Iranian assets, and pledge not to strengthen regional forces. In exchange, Iran commits to permit commercial traffic without charge for just 60 days and pledges not to acquire nuclear weapons—something the report notes "it often has before while advancing a nuclear weapons program." The central issue of verifying and enforcing Iran's nuclear pledge has been left for future negotiation, while the agreement states Iran will "maintain the status quo on its nuclear program." The deal lacks even an agreed text in both English and Persian, and the U.S. ceased its blockade before Iran fulfilled any obligations in the agreement.
According to Schake, blame for this outcome "belongs first and foremost to the President of the United States for going to war recklessly, defining its terms with incontinence, appointing a cabinet of amplifiers rather than counselors, purposely mischaracterizing events in ways that discredited the U.S. government, antagonizing allies whose help we needed." The report identifies three additional officials who "should lose their jobs" for performance that "so damaged the war effort": Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio. The report states these failures "are not marginal failures, they are failures at the central responsibilities of the position."
The report explains that the war's disastrous outcome stems from multiple leadership breakdowns at the highest levels. Secretary Hegseth is criticized for failing to "protect the President against unrealistic expectations" and giving "no indication of understanding that the enemy gets a vote," resulting in failure to anticipate Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz despite decades of military wargames preparing for exactly that scenario. The military plans approved squandered "scarce assets—both weapons and readiness—it will take years to rebuild," leaving the U.S. vulnerable to more capable adversaries than Iran. Secretary Rubio "spectacularly failed" to assemble international support either before or during the war, and allowed agreement terms that constrain U.S. rather than Iranian behavior. The National Security Advisor failed to coordinate government action and ensure military operations added up to successful strategy, with the report noting that "we have military operations that do not add up to a successful strategy."
The report warns the agreement will actually make an Iranian nuclear weapon more likely, having "catapulted the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that advocate and effectuate a nuclear-armed Iran fully into power and throwing them a substantial economic lifeline of cash infusion and sanctions relief." After President Trump stalled for three months hoping Iran's economy would collapse, he was trapped between escalating to a land war or accepting humiliation by conceding his war aims—and he chose the latter. The administration's reluctance to release the agreement text and their aggressive messaging suggests they're trying to get ahead of criticism, but the report concludes it will be "impossible to hide that the outcome of this war is an American defeat of historic proportions."