Developers of data centers across the United States added 36 GW of disclosed capacity to their project pipelines during the first quarter of 2026, marking a 19% decline from new additions in the final quarter of 2025, according to a report published this month by Wood Mackenzie. The analysis shows that established operators are increasingly concentrating their efforts on advancing projects already in development as the regulatory and permitting landscape grows more complex. Total disclosed data center capacity in the pipeline now stands at 331 GW nationwide, though less than half of that figure represents projects under active development.
Texas continues to dominate planned capacity expansion, with cumulative planned capacity now exceeding 96 GW after developers added 6.4 GW, or 14% of the state's total, during Q1 2026. Ohio ranks second in terms of planned capacity development. While massive sites are being planned in states like Utah, New Mexico, and West Virginia due to land availability, only a small fraction of those projects are currently under active development. Across the country, 53% of projects have cleared the permitting phase, but those sites account for just 32% of total capacity. Projects that entered construction phases so far in 2026 are less energy dense than those still in the disclosure and permitting stages, the report finds. Developers with a small number of large projects dominate the capacity rankings, while newer entrants focused on gas supply and land access are targeting states such as Texas and Utah, in contrast to more mature developers who maintain geographically diverse pipelines.
The report tracks large load commitments made by top US utilities, revealing that capacity with signed construction or electricity supply agreements now totals 195 GW—equivalent to 26% of 2025 US peak load. Capacity in advanced discussion phases surged from 37 GW in Q1 2026 to 107 GW, signaling that project pipelines are maturing and early-stage study processes are concluding. Sixty-nine percent of construction and committed capacity is concentrated in the PJM or ERCOT grid regions. The report notes that PJM faces the highest risk of large-load pipelines exceeding the reliable generation queue, and that near-term reliable supply additions fail to fully account for high-confidence load additions in PJM. Disclosed capital expenditure associated with specific projects surpassed $1 trillion in Q1 2026, though just 6% of all projects account for 42% of total capex. Per-megawatt costs declined during the quarter after spiking in the second half of 2025.
The report explains that the regulatory environment for data center development has become increasingly complex and varies significantly by region, creating new friction points for developers. Interruptible service options are being deployed, forcing companies to choose between speed-to-power and firm power guarantees, while policymakers generally view firm service requirements as unnecessary obstacles to interconnection. Fast-track capacity interconnection frameworks aim to bring new generation online quickly ahead of an anticipated supply crunch. Around-the-meter generation strategies are gaining traction, with most disclosed capacity concentrated in Texas due to strong gas supply, faster permitting, and a robust renewables market. Gas now accounts for 40% of deployments and 48% of total site capacity, while renewables and storage represent 41% of deployments and 38% of capacity.
Wood Mackenzie's analysis concludes that it remains uncertain whether policy developments will ultimately help or hinder demand growth, as policymakers attempt to balance the often-competing priorities of affordability, speed to power, and decarbonization. The concentration of investment in a small number of large, speculative projects suggests that developers are betting on scale to navigate mounting regulatory challenges. With uncommitted, longer-term capacity increasing significantly in Q1 2026—driven primarily by utilities in ERCOT—the gap between disclosed pipeline capacity and projects under active development signals that many planned data centers face uncertain paths to completion.