Washington state recorded a net loss of nearly 19,000 taxpayers and dependents and roughly $1.66 billion in adjusted gross income between 2021 and 2022, according to a new analysis published by the Washington Policy Center. The report examines multiple data sources that point to the same conclusion: Americans already living in Washington are leaving for more affordable states, and they're taking substantial earnings with them. What lawmakers in Olympia continue to describe as a magnet for business and new residents now looks more like a place people are actively planning to exit.
In the first quarter of 2026, Seattle ranked second among the nation's 100 largest metro areas for net outflow of house hunters, with 26,349 more Redfin users searching to leave than to arrive—only New York fared worse. Phoenix was the most popular destination for those Seattle searchers, where home prices run about half of Seattle's. Washington's Office of Financial Management estimates the state added 61,750 net migrants from April 2024 to April 2025, but net migration dropped by 7,500 in a single year and hit its weakest level since 2013, excluding the pandemic-disrupted year of 2021. Domestic in-migration is running roughly 18 percent below pre-pandemic levels, with international arrivals keeping the overall number from turning negative. A Seattle Times review of Census data found Washington lost more than 20,000 residents to other states from 2020 to 2024, with the annual number of people moving out jumping from about 198,400 to approximately 233,100—an 18 percent increase. Arizona took the largest net share, followed by Texas and other lower-cost states.
King County's IRS data shows a net loss of about 13,000 people and nearly $2 billion in adjusted gross income in a single year. Even when the county gained people from other states, it still lost $446 million in income because outbound households earned more than those moving in, the report notes. United Van Lines' 2025 study, which tracks full-service household moves that tend to involve older and more affluent customers, ranked Washington a net outbound state, with 52.4 percent of its Washington shipments leaving and 47.6 percent arriving. The report describes HUD's market analysis as concluding that domestic net out-migration from the Seattle housing market area has happened every year since 2017, with international in-migration—much of it from Asia—masking the loss.
The report argues that residents aren't loading moving trucks because of press releases claiming Washington is "open for business." They're leaving when housing becomes too expensive, taxes keep piling up, and competing states don't treat work and investment as problems needing solutions. The analysis points to the capital-gains tax, proposed millionaire income tax, and housing mandates as policies that signal to higher earners that the financial equation won't improve. The pattern mirrors a national trend: nearly one in five U.S. house hunters now search outside their home metro area, the highest share in records dating to 2021, with expensive coastal job centers losing residents to cheaper Sun Belt markets. Washington sits squarely in the first category, the report states.
The report concludes that if lawmakers want different migration numbers, they'll have to change the reasons families are typing "Phoenix," "Boise," and "Dallas" into search bars. Redfin's search data serves as the early warning system, while IRS income data represents the actual bill coming due. The tax-base erosion that Olympia treats as myth is showing up as measurable income loss, with the gap between what leaves and what arrives widening even when total population remains stable.