The United States is on track to pump more crude oil this year than ever before, averaging 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and breaking the previous record of 13.7 million set just last year, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released September 10 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The increase marks a continuation of America's oil production surge, with output already up 2% in the first six months of this year compared to the same period in 2025. Nearly all of the growth is coming from two regions: the Permian Basin stretching across Texas and New Mexico, and the Federal Gulf of America.
The Permian Basin alone will average 6.8 million barrels daily in 2026, representing a 3% jump from last year's levels, the EIA forecast shows. That production boost is being fueled by a sharp climb in crude prices—West Texas Intermediate averaged $65 per barrel throughout 2025 but has surged to an average of $84 through August 2026, well above the breakeven threshold for Permian operators. In the Federal Gulf of America, output climbed 10% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same stretch last year, an increase of 0.2 million barrels per day. For the full year, the agency expects Gulf production to rise 3%, adding another 0.1 million barrels daily to the national total.
The surge in offshore production stems largely from four major projects that launched over the past year, the report notes. The Shenandoah Floating Production Unit has been delivering 70,000 barrels per day since starting up in July 2025, while the Ballymore subsea tieback has contributed 58,000 barrels daily since April 2025. Two additional projects—the Whale field's floating unit producing 38,000 barrels per day since January 2025, and the Salamanca platform drawing from the Leon and Castile fields at 25,000 barrels daily since late 2025—round out the new capacity. The EIA expects four smaller projects to begin operation by year's end, adding to this year's growth.
Higher oil prices are the main driver behind the Permian's expansion, making drilling economically viable across the region's two largest formations. Oil executives surveyed by the Dallas Fed in March reported average breakeven costs of $69 per barrel in the Midland Basin and $63 in the Delaware Basin—both comfortably below current price levels. With WTI prices holding near $84, drilling activity has intensified, directly translating into higher crude output. The price environment has essentially unlocked production that wasn't profitable when oil traded in the mid-$60s just a year ago.
The outlook for continued growth faces one notable wild card: hurricane activity in the Gulf. However, forecasters expect relatively calm conditions this season, with Colorado State University predicting below-normal Atlantic Basin storm activity from June through November due to El Niño weather patterns. That projection reduces the risk of major disruptions to the offshore projects driving Gulf production higher. For now, the combination of elevated prices in the Permian and new offshore capacity coming online positions U.S. crude output to keep climbing through the end of 2026.